Key Takeaways:
Eric Trump is the latest high-profile figure to predict Bitcoin at $1M, but critics warn the forecasts are more hype than serious analysis.
One analyst says $1 million BTC would require displacing gold and sovereign debt as anchors of trust — something he considers unrealistic.
Another says the bold calls are typical of bull markets, fuelling FOMO and drawing in retail just as early investors take profits.
Eric Trump says Bitcoin (BTC) will hit $1 million within years, becoming the latest high-profile figure to make the bold prediction. But critics doubt this will ever happen, saying the forecasts are a marketing trick, not serious analysis.
Speaking at the Bitcoin Asia conference on Aug. 29, Eric, the second son of U.S. President Donald Trump, said that the milestone will be driven by institutional adoption and Bitcoin’s limited supply, which is capped at 21 million coins.
“There’s no question Bitcoin hits $1 million,” he said, according to several media reports. “Buy right now, shut your eyes, hold it for the next five years, and you’re going to do terrifically well.”
Eric, who helps run the Trump family’s multi-billion-dollar crypto empire, hailed China as “a hell of a power” in crypto. He is open to his father and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, discussing crypto any time soon.
Eric Trump is in good company. Block CEO Jack Dorsey, Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao, and author Robert Kiyosaki have all wagered on $1 million Bitcoin by 2030. Samson Mow, the CEO of Jan3, is more bullish, predicting the top cryptocurrency will hit the threshold as early as 2025.
The idea has captivated many people in crypto, but analysts who spoke to Cryptonews say such high valuations are less about analysis and more about narrative. Chances of BTC hitting $1 million in five years are very slim, they say.
“Each speaker has a motivation — whether it is to promote adoption, sell books, drive engagement, or validate a portfolio,” said Petro Golovko, a gold and finance veteran with British Gold Trust. “The market should treat such forecasts as marketing, not as analysis.”
He warned that focusing on precise price predictions is “misleading” and distracts from deeper structural questions about Bitcoin’s resilience.
Bitcoin has risen 18% since January, but it remains well off the forecast $1 million mark. In August, BTC hit an all-time high of $124,500, spurred by supportive regulations in the U.S. and strong institutional demand.
Bitcoin: A Reflexive Asset
According to Golovko, narrative is baked into the performance of Bitcoin, an asset he describes as “reflexive and speculative.” Sky-high predictions reinforce belief, build momentum, and excite retail investors, he says.
But this may not be enough to guarantee sustainability as extreme volatility looks set to remain a feature of Bitcoin. Even if speculative hype were to push Bitcoin briefly toward $1 million, Golovko doubts it would last.
“Bitcoin remains reflexive: its price is driven less by fundamentals and more by belief and liquidity cycles. Could speculative fervor briefly push it much higher? Yes. But sustainability is another matter.”
The $1 million forecast is “unrealistic” for many reasons. Crucially, he says, “a $1 million BTC implies a market cap rivalling or even exceeding gold, sovereign debt markets, or the largest pools of global capital.”
“That would require not only adoption, but displacement of existing monetary anchors. Given Bitcoin’s dependence on fiat on- and off-ramps, and its lack of intrinsic anchor, this is highly unrealistic.”
The total market cap of physical gold is around $23.5 to $23.8 trillion, making it one of the largest assets by market value worldwide. That compares to Bitcoin’s current market capitalization of $2.2 trillion.
Golovko explained that Bitcoin’s need for constant liquidity inflows and confidence represents a weak point compared to physical gold, an age-old material anchor. Bitcoin has often been referred to as “digital gold”.
“Gold has endured for millennia because it is not a narrative — it is a material anchor of trust, immune to cycles of belief,” Golovko, who is also a decentralized AI and quantum finance researcher, told Cryptonews.
“Crypto assets, by contrast, are structurally reflexive: they depend on constant liquidity inflows and confidence.”
FOMO and Clickbait Predictions
Matteo Greco, senior associate at Canadian Securities Exchange-listed crypto firm Fineqia, said astronomical price predictions are typical of every bull market.
“As prices approach or break new all-time highs, bold predictions of ‘skyrocketing’ valuations and promises of the moon begin to circulate,” he said, adding:
“These narratives fuel FOMO, drawing in new investors with the illusion that crypto is easy money. The real motivation behind such clickbait forecasts is often to attract retail participants, who then provide liquidity for earlier investors that accumulated at much lower levels.”
Greco notes that the dynamic is especially common in the latter stages of bull cycles, when long-term holders take profits while short-term entrants pile in under the influence of FOMO (fear of missing out).
The cycle repeats, again and again. In 2020, for example, forecasts put the Bitcoin price at over $100,000, yet it peaked at $69,000. In this cycle, says Greco, the targets are even higher, from $150,000 to $1 million.
“Round numbers make for good headlines and clickbait, and they help build the euphoria that typically characterises the latter stages of a bull cycle.”
For years, Bitcoin has followed a familiar pattern — a four-year price cycle driven by the asset’s so-called halving events, an in-built mechanism that occurs every 210,000 blocks or every four years, cutting the BTC supply.
The pattern, which is known as Bitcoin Cycle Theory, often led to a period of accumulation, a huge rally, and then a crash. The cycles occurred in 2013, 2017, and 2021 — typically 12 to 18 months post-halving.
If history repeats, Greco says 2025 would mark the peak of the current cycle. In the past, halving events provided a boon for Bitcoin, but experts think industry fundamentals have evolved beyond the four-year pattern.
Source: Sentora
According to Greco, each cycle has so far produced a new high, but also diminishing returns. In that context, he believes it is “improbable” for the price of BTC to reach $1 million over the next five years.
“At some stage, we may see a cycle without diminishing returns, once the market is sufficiently mature to attract significantly more capital than the previous one,” he said. “That may well be the next cycle, but a $1 million price target still feels like a very bold assumption at this point.”
Bitcoin vs Gold: Nominal Illusion Against Real Value
At the Bitcoin Asia conference in Hong Kong, Eric Trump spoke about how his family “believes” in the Bitcoin community. He said his father, President Trump, turned to crypto after he had been shunned by banks.
In March, the Trump Organization reportedly sued Capital One for closing more than 300 of its bank accounts following the Capitol riots on Jan. 6, 2021. The riots were allegedly caused by the supporters of Donald Trump.
“They were canceling the hell out of us, and they were going after you,” Eric said, referring to Bitcoiners. “The enemy of your enemy is your friend, and that’s how the Trump family came to this community.”
Since the re-election of President Trump in November, the price of Bitcoin has soared nearly 60%. Trump has broadened the remit for institutional adoption with friendly regulations like the GENIUS Act.
Meanwhile, his family is basking in the season of goodwill with a DeFi protocol, a stablecoin, and a Bitcoin mining operation.
On Sept. 1, WLFI, a crypto token linked to the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial, started publicly trading on major exchanges like Binance and Bybit. President Trump and his sons own $5 billion worth of WLFI.
Beyond the friendly policies, the Trump family represents the power of narrative, as noted by both Golovko of British Gold Trust and Fineqia’s Greco, who doubt that BTC will reach $1 million anytime soon, if at all.
Greco says BTC may continue to grow over time, gradually narrowing the gap with gold. But he finds “the assumption that this could happen within just a few years and over the course of a single bull market unrealistic.”
“Looking at historical data, such an outcome simply doesn’t align with how cycles have played out so far. No one can predict the future with certainty, but based on past patterns, it seems highly improbable.”
How much regulation and mainstreaming would be needed to reach $1 million may well be an existential question for the values of Bitcoin.
Golovko poses the simpler question: “How much will a Big Mac cost” in a hype-rinflationary world, which is fundamental to pumping BTC to $1 million?
“Those making grand price forecasts never answer this because it reveals the difference between nominal illusion and real value,” he said.
The post Can Bitcoin Truly Go to $1 Million This Decade? appeared first on Cryptonews.
