Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss told investors Tuesday that he believes Bitcoin under $90,000 may be a last chance to buy, as the token slipped below that level, erased its 2025 gains and reignited debate about the cycle.
Bitcoin has dropped from a record above $126,000 on Oct. 6 to the low $90,000s, wiping about $600b from its market value and taking prices back to levels last seen seven months ago. The move has revived familiar bull and bear arguments across crypto desks.
On one side, traders talk about cycle panic. With no single headline trigger for the sell-off, many have fallen back on the four-year halving playbook, even as deep institutional flows make that framework less tidy than in earlier eras.
Government Shutdown And Trade Tensions Add Pressure To Crypto
Macro conditions form the backdrop. A long government shutdown, persistent trade war worries and weak liquidity have weighed on risk assets, leaving crypto exposed to swings in dollar strength, rate expectations and global growth sentiment.
Analysts say Bitcoin now trades more like a macro asset than a purely supply-driven one.
Leverage has added fuel. The token has sold off sharply since about $19b in leveraged positions were liquidated last month, a flush that was amplified by long-term holders taking profits. The current correction lands in the window when Bitcoin has often peaked in past cycles, roughly 400 to 600 days after the April 2024 halving.
Whale Shorts Now Outpace Longs As ETF Outflows Deepen
On-chain data from mid-November shows large holders moving. A Bitunix analyst said clusters of wallets holding more than 1,000 Bitcoin executed concentrated sales, pushing the price from below $100,000 toward $97,000, while both exchange and derivatives data point to synchronized selling pressure.
That analysis noted that whale short exposure now exceeds longs, with on-chain metrics showing about $2.17b in shorts versus $1.18b in longs, and several consecutive weeks of net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, worth several billions over five weeks.
Derivatives traders have been buying protection with put options around the $90,000 to $95,000 area, signalling demand for hedges at lower levels.
Reports from firms such as Glassnode and MarketVector have framed the move as “scheduled distribution” by long-term holders rather than panic liquidation, but they also stress that the market’s ability to absorb that supply has weakened.
ETF redemptions and slower institutional allocation mean similar waves of selling can now drive sharper moves and trigger more cascading liquidations.
Deep Pullbacks Have Often Preceded Higher Highs In Bitcoin’s History
Technically, analysts are watching $100,000 as resistance and $93,000 as a key support area.
Bitunix views whale wallet flows, ETF trends and options market positioning as the main signals to watch. A turn in all three, with stronger spot inflows, easing short exposure and calmer implied volatility, would suggest real demand is returning rather than short term short covering.
Institutional buyers are still active in the background. MicroStrategy disclosed on Monday that it had bought another 8,178 Bitcoin at an average price of $102,171, spending about $835m and adding to a balance sheet that already makes it one of the largest corporate holders of the asset.
Winklevoss’ claim that this could be the last chance to buy below $90,000 speaks to a familiar theme in crypto: that deep drawdowns are part of the path to higher highs, even if the route there is as dependent on global liquidity and policy as on halvings and on-chain cycles.
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