Glassnode lead analyst James Check has raised concerns over the longevity of the corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy, arguing the easy gains might already be gone for new entrants as the market matures.
Key Takeaways:
Glassnode’s James Check warns the Bitcoin treasury strategy may have limited upside left.
Early movers like Michael Saylor’s Strategy are well-positioned.
However, new treasury firms could struggle to differentiate and sustain premiums.
“My instinct is the Bitcoin treasury strategy has a far shorter lifespan than most expect,” Check said in an X post on Friday, cautioning that many recent firms jumping into Bitcoin reserves could struggle to sustain interest or justify premiums.
“For many new entrants, it could already be over,” he added.
Early Bitcoin Treasuries Thrive as Newcomers Face Uphill Battle
Check argued that while early adopters like Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which holds nearly 600,000 BTC, have cemented their lead, new treasury firms face a steeper climb.
“Nobody wants the 50th Treasury company,” he noted, warning that investors increasingly expect clear differentiation rather than another firm adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet.
“I think we’re already close to the ‘show me’ phase, where it will be increasingly difficult for random company X to sustain a premium and get off the ground without a serious niche,” Check said.
Despite Bitcoin’s recent rally to within 4% of its all-time high, Check suggested the growing number of Bitcoin treasury firms risks saturating the market.
Data from BitcoinTreasuries shows at least 21 new entities added BTC holdings in the past month alone.
Check highlighted that speculative retail investors may flock to these newcomers, but stressed they don’t “have infinite money” to support dozens of copycats chasing the same strategy.
He noted that larger, well-established firms like Strategy have more time to prove their thesis compared to latecomers.
Echoing his concerns, Taproot Wizards co-founder Udi Wizardheimer said many startups entering the Bitcoin treasury space appear to be motivated by short-term profits rather than long-term conviction.
“Many of the folks raising just see easy money and have no idea what they’re doing,” Wizardheimer argued.
He added that weaker players may eventually be acquired at a discount by stronger firms, though he believes the trend could still see “a few more legs.”
Doubts Grow Over Long-Term Viability of Bitcoin Treasury Strategy
Skepticism around the sustainability of the Bitcoin treasury trend is growing.
Breed, a venture capital firm, warned in a June 29 report that only a few Bitcoin treasury companies are likely to survive long term without falling into a “death spiral” as their stock prices converge with the value of their BTC holdings.
The warning echoes recent comments from Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, who has voiced concerns over the Bitcoin treasury strategies adopted by some publicly traded firms.
Sigel singled out the use of at-the-market (ATM) share issuance programs, arguing that these can become dilutive if a company’s stock price nears its Bitcoin net asset value (NAV).
Meanwhile, New York law firm Pomerantz LLP has filed a class action lawsuit against Michael Saylor’s Strategy, accusing the Bitcoin-focused firm of misleading investors about the profitability and risks of its crypto investment strategy.
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