Key Takeaways:
Eric Balchunas said spot Bitcoin ETFs could collectively hold more BTC than Satoshi Nakamoto within a year.
Balchunas addressed the Trump meme coin ETF filing, calling its approval unprecedented and potentially sensitive for the SEC.
The ETF industry is expected to expand into basket products mixing BTC, ETH, altcoins, and meme tokens.
At Bloomberg’s ETFs in Depth event on June 18, Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas said spot Bitcoin ETFs could collectively hold more Bitcoin than the amount attributed to Bitcoin’s creator Satoshi Nakamoto within a year.
Satoshi is estimated to control around 1.1 million BTC, or approximately 5% of the total supply. Balchunas suggested ETF holdings may eventually exceed that percentage if current flows continue.
Bitcoin ETF and New Launch Tsunami
The session also covered the pace of ETF launches. The U.S. market is expected to see nearly 1,000 new ETFs introduced in 2025, according to Balchunas, who described the activity as a “New Launch Tsunami.”
Though crypto ETFs still make up a small fraction of total ETF assets, he noted they generate disproportionate attention, saying they represent “1 percent of the asset but take up 50 percent of my mind.”
Balchunas said platforms like Fidelity and BlackRock have played a role in shaping mainstream adoption of crypto ETFs by appealing to older investors. He described Fidelity’s approach as speaking “perfect boomer language,” and suggested that Larry Fink’s participation has helped ease concerns following events such as the FTX collapse.
Addressing investor behavior, Balchunas said it is a misconception that traditional ETF holders, including older investors, are more likely to sell during market downturns. Instead, he argued that these investors have generally shown long-term holding behavior.
While institutional crypto funds continue to grow and retail investors continue to hold, he anticipated the liquidity of Bitcoin to drop.
Truth Social ETF and Trump Meme Coin ETF
On the topic of new crypto ETF filings, Balchunas discussed two recent developments linked to Trump, one involving Truth Social’s filing for a Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF, and another related to a proposed “Trump meme coin” ETF.
Speaking of the Truth Social filing, he said, “Obviously Trump isn’t gonna manage himself, but just the fact that his company is launching a Bitcoin ETF, I would say it’s surreal.”
“But there’s no challenge in it getting approved because it’s. Just like the other ones that are already in the market,” he said.
The proposed Trump-themed meme coin ETF, however, raised more regulatory questions. Balchunas described it as a product with limited use and said its approval would be unusual.
“This is almost like approving a baseball card or Pokémon card,” he said, adding that rejecting it could lead to sensitive optics for the SEC if headlines framed the decision as blocking a coin tied to the president.
He said the ETF industry will continue to experiment with baskets and other combinations like how Truth Social’s ETF holds 75% of Bitcoin and 25% of Ethereum, including altcoins and meme tokens, in search of structures that connect with retail investors.
“Crypto is gonna get the full ETF treatment,” the analyst said. “I bet one or two basket ETFs [will] do very well.”
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Crypto ETFs remain a small portion of the broader ETF market but generate considerable interest due to their volatility, political associations, and market implications. Analysts and institutional players watch them closely for indicators of adoption and sentiment shifts.
Balchunas noted that approving a meme coin tied to a sitting or former president, particularly one with little apparent utility, could set a regulatory precedent for potential meme coin ETF applications.
Basket ETFs include multiple digital assets, like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins, in a single product. These allow investors exposure to a broader range of coins without individual research.
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