Polymarket bettors are more confident than ever this week, with odds hitting an all-time high of 87% in favour of an XRP ETF approval in 2025.
Commentators on the decentralised prediction markets platform have dubbed the event contract “an easy bet for yes.”
The bet will resolve if an XRP-based ETF product receives approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by December 31.
Ripple ETF approval in 2025 predictions: Source: Polymarket.
ETF Store President Nate Geraci echoed this confidence on X, calling it “obvious” that approval is only a “matter of time.”
While a Gambling site at its core, Polymarket has historically been very accurate. Dune Analytics data shows the platform maintained 90% accuracy a month before market resolutions.
Near-term optimism remains subdued, with bettors assigning just a 32% chance of XRP ETF approval before July 31.
The SEC has until mid-October to decide under the 240-day review period after acknowledging Greyscale’s 19b-4 filing.
What’s Got Bettors So Confident in an XRP ETF Approval?
The surge in Polymarket odds follows regulatory clarity on XRP, with the end of the 4-year Ripple-SEC lawsuit over the front-running altcoin’s classification.
Ripple has settled with the SEC, agreeing to pay a reduced $50 million penalty and withdraw its cross-appeal in the long-running lawsuit.
In return, the SEC will request that an injunction that prevents Ripple from selling XRP to institutional investors be removed—pathing the way for an ETF.
The case’s resolution is in tune with a shift in U.S. regulatory leadership under the Trump Administration, in his push to make the U.S. the “world crypto capital.”
Trump Administration Pushes for Crypto Regulatory Framework
The crypto regulatory backdrop is starting to become more favorable as the Trump Administration takes concrete steps toward a regulatory framework.
Trump’s nominee to chair the SEC Paul Atkins has vowed to implement a “rational, coherent, and principled” framework for digital assets.
Atkins aims to address what he calls the “ambiguous and non-existent” oversight of the previous administration, which he argues stifled innovation.
The latest step toward this goal is the proposed STABLE Act, which introduces stricter regulations on private USD-backed stablecoins like Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC).
Under the act, operators would be legally required to obtain a banking charter and receive approval from financial regulators.
However, the move has sparked controversy. U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren accused Trump of using the legislation to advance his own financial interests through a stablecoin bill.
Warren’s claims stem from reports that World Liberty Financial, a Trump-backed DeFi project, recently launched its stablecoin, USD1, on Ethereum and Binance’s BNB Chain.
The senator labelled the project a “grift” designed to “enrich” Trump, reminiscent of previous controversy surrounding Trump family-backed meme coins.
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